HERALD ELECTION PREDICTION: AVARAM - WITHIN THE MARGIN

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE PRESIDENT'S LANDSLIDE PROJECTION?

Electoral Opinion by T. J. NORTON
CO-EDITORIAL PARTNER

What's the Herald's prediction? An Avaram re-election but within the +/- due to the debate. I think both candidates did very well but it separated the two for different reasons.


HOW THE DEBATE CHANGED THE ELECTORAL DYNAMIC

First, prior to the debate it was assured an Avaram landslide. The debate didn't demonstrate much weakness on the part of the President, rather Mr McVicker's rise to said challenge. Some more authoritarian view points are concerning as well as some meandering over answering MC Daddy D's question on economic direction, but overall I don't believe this affected his electability argument. Rather, a cautionary tale.

There is little doubt that the debate performances went a long way to deciding this election outcome and has certainly hurt the Avaram case for re-election. It has also given the Libertarian Left something to get excited about for next election. If McVicker doesn't win this election, I would expect a rise from the left flank that we would not have previously seen before the opportunities got a good shot in the arm.


2ND ROUND VOTING ADVANTAGES

Despite strategies to throw the ballot to an undecided column, uncommitted voters have since pledged support for Avaram or McVicker - a presumed move. So when we see the final result, it is likely that we will see a fair redistribution of preferences from "Pedro voting" in the 1st Round either go to one of the top-tier candidates or exhaust largely as non-returns (meaning that the citizen voting Pedro in 1st Round didn't / couldn't / forgot to vote in the 2nd Round).


THE FUTURE FOR AVARAM AND McVICKER: The Pros and Cons

A huge plus for the President would be to remind citizens why they voted for him in the first place and perhaps play the familiarity card. Throughout the campaign, both candidates have scrambled from suggestions that the two are philosophically similar as fiscal conservatives - but perhaps that's what McVicker would have you think?

The Libertarian Party of Titulia - half-European Libertarian / half-US Democrat are verging to their old political stomping ground - the social progressive movement as when Titulia began. With this move back to familiar ground, Leader McVicker will need to demonstrate to the faithful 'Left' that there is good reason not to be shown the door. That will require moderating some of his more conservative tendencies on the economy.

This is going to be a huge boost for President Avaram (R) with the Republican economic platform being widely supported nationally. It will open up a significant home-court advantage for the incumbent and posture as he might - McVicker can't alienate the left without the risk of internal challenge. With McVicker crippled from internal wrangling, even if Avaram loses re-election there would be no doubt of his return in a later poll - providing Avaram doesn't call it a day (which will be McVicker's prayer come true).

Mr McVicker once joked on the Republican Party Caucus board that he would like to be made 'an honourary Republican'.

Q. What's the difference between a Conservative Democrat ('Bluedog') and a Liberal Republican ('RINO')? A. What's behind the 'lipstick'. *wink*


* T. J. Norton is the former Leader of the Republican Party of Titulia and has spent over 12 years in real-life professional politics.